Economic assumptions#
We project economic variables using year-over-year growth rates stored in parameters/gov/economic_assumptions/yoy_growth.yaml. We generate index values from these rates to update household variables. We source all values from the OBR’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook (March 2025) unless we specify otherwise.
Consumer price index#
We use the OBR’s CPI projections to drive most benefit and consumption variables.
Fiscal year |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Growth rate |
10.0% |
5.7% |
2.3% |
3.2% |
1.9% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
We apply CPI to these variables:
All reported benefits–
attendance_allowance_reported,carers_allowance_reported,child_benefit_reported,child_tax_credit_reported,dla_m_reported,dla_sc_reported,esa_contrib_reported,esa_income_reported,housing_benefit_reported,iidb_reported,incapacity_benefit_reported,income_support_reported,jsa_contrib_reported,jsa_income_reported,maternity_allowance_reported,pension_credit_reported,pip_dl_reported,pip_m_reported,sda_reported,state_pension_reported,universal_credit_reported,winter_fuel_allowance_reported,working_tax_credit_reportedAll consumption categories–
alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption,clothing_and_footwear_consumption,communication_consumption,domestic_energy_consumption,education_consumption,food_and_non_alcoholic_beverages_consumption,health_consumption,household_furnishings_consumption,housing_water_and_electricity_consumption,miscellaneous_consumption,recreation_consumption,restaurants_and_hotels_consumption,transport_consumptionOther variables–
afcs_reported,bsp_reported,childcare_expenses,diesel_spending,free_school_fruit_veg,free_school_meals,free_school_milk,maintenance_expenses,petrol_spending,statutory_maternity_pay,statutory_paternity_pay,statutory_sick_pay,state_pension
Average earnings#
We apply the OBR’s wage growth forecasts to employment-related variables.
Fiscal year |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Growth rate |
6.4% |
6.9% |
4.7% |
3.7% |
2.2% |
2.1% |
2.3% |
2.5% |
We use average earnings for these variables: employee_pension_contributions, employer_pension_contributions, employment_income, employment_income_before_lsr, personal_pension_contributions, student_loan_repayments
Per capita GDP#
We derive these rates from OBR GDP growth and ONS population projections.
Fiscal year |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Growth rate |
9.2% |
5.0% |
3.8% |
2.8% |
2.8% |
3.1% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
We use per capita GDP for these variables: capital_gains, capital_gains_before_response, corporate_wealth, dividend_income, gross_financial_wealth, lump_sum_income, main_residence_value, maintenance_income, miscellaneous_income, mortgage_capital_repayment, net_financial_wealth, non_residential_property_value, other_investment_income, other_residential_property_value, owned_land, pension_income, private_transfer_income, property_income, savings, savings_interest_income, sublet_income
Council tax#
We use the OBR’s Council Tax receipts and projections.
Fiscal year |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Growth rate |
5.3% |
5.6% |
6.4% |
4.6% |
4.5% |
4.6% |
4.5% |
4.5% |
We apply this to: council_tax
Mortgage interest#
We use the OBR’s mortgage interest rate index growth rates.
Fiscal year |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Growth rate |
26.2% |
48.5% |
22.1% |
13.6% |
12.6% |
8.2% |
4.2% |
4.7% |
We apply this to: mortgage_interest_repayment
Private pension index#
We use RPI year-on-year change from the previous year, capped at 5%.
Fiscal year |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Growth rate |
5.0% |
5.0% |
5.0% |
4.7% |
3.7% |
2.2% |
2.1% |
2.3% |
We apply this to: private_pension_income
Rent#
We use the OBR’s rental growth projections.
Fiscal year |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Growth rate |
4.0% |
6.3% |
7.4% |
5.7% |
3.6% |
2.7% |
2.3% |
2.4% |
We apply this to: rent
Per capita mixed income#
We derive these rates from OBR mixed income growth and ONS population projections.
Fiscal year |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Growth rate |
6.3% |
2.4% |
4.8% |
4.7% |
3.1% |
3.1% |
3.6% |
3.8% |
We apply this to: self_employment_income
Population#
We use ONS population projections.
Fiscal year |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Growth rate |
0.3% |
1.4% |
1.0% |
1.1% |
0.7% |
0.8% |
0.4% |
0.5% |
We apply this to: household_weight