Development progress

Snapshot as of 2026-09-03T09:45:00Z (UTC); updated at least daily while the evidence campaign is active. The data behind this page is committed at docs/progress/progress.json.

Dynamics builds Social Security earnings histories from the PSID, and the corrected covered-earnings series is only as credible as the reading of the source documentation beneath it. Before that series ships, every piece of documentation the construction relies on is independently verified by the three arms below; the design is pre-registered and ratifies only when they complete. (Internally: the evidence campaign behind Amendment 20 (two-arm evidence charter for the covered-earnings correction design), under review in PR #405, open; draft ratified through round 6.2; next step, the A4 evidence freeze, then the C20 ratification chain toward revision 22.)

Already built

The foundations below are complete and in the repository today; the campaign tracked on this page is the verification layer on top of them.

Verification arms

<strong>Prompt-purpose census</strong>
<span style="font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;">
  17,585 / 20,815 &middot; 84.5%</span>
<div style="background: #2c6496; border-radius: 6px; height: 14px;
            width: 84.5%;"></div>
prompts adopted (contiguous R1–R17585). Establishing what each of the ~21,000 remaining items in the PSID’s 1968–2023 questionnaires and codebooks is actually asking, so the model only uses variables whose meaning has been adjudicated rather than assumed. Each block runs a full pass, an independent dense audit, and a correction sweep before its entries are adopted into the governing ledger. 
<strong>A3 classification arm</strong>
<span style="font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;">
  41,103 / 41,103 &middot; 100.0%</span>
<div style="background: #2c6496; border-radius: 6px; height: 14px;
            width: 100.0%;"></div>
queue rows final-adopted — ARM COMPLETE. Deciding how zeros and missing readings in the source data should be interpreted — a true zero, a question that was never asked, or an inapplicable route — across a 41,103-row queue of PSID variable readings, in 800-row blocks with 20% independent audits and correction sweeps. 
<strong>Q5 semantic annotation</strong>
<span style="font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;">
  45 / 257 &middot; 17.5%</span>
<div style="background: #2c6496; border-radius: 6px; height: 14px;
            width: 17.5%;"></div>
documents sealed. Verifying which survey questions connect to which data fields, document by document across the PSID questionnaire corpus: two independent annotators per document, then a reconciliation that seals its table of record.

Inside the numbers

The three drill-down tables below decompose each arm’s progress bar row by row. Every row was extracted from the campaign’s evidence archive and independently re-verified against the artifact named in its source column.

Purpose census, document by document

What one unit is: One rank = one row of the pinned 20,815-row residual index (e8-ops/sol-ce-purpose-residual-index-v1.txt, file SHA b35519702e6f…) = one prompt occurrence keyed psid-questionnaire-occurrence:<sha256> — a single printed questionnaire item in a sealed official PSID questionnaire/QxQ-codebook PDF (staged under ~/PolicyEngine/psid-data/documentation/capture1), located by an exact page/character-span receipt, e.g. q88:p4[2538,2708)#10bc6b307d41. What is adjudicated per rank is the prompt’s “purpose”: per sol-ce-purpose-evidence-scope-report.md, purpose “is the closed model-law classification saying which factual dimension a field_purpose_prompt establishes for O_P” — not survey designers’ motivation. Each rank is disposed either D (determined: an ordered purpose array over the closed 35-literal space, e.g. [M]) or SU (source-underdetermined, with a named condition such as U_ONTOLOGY, U_CONFLICT, or U_SCOPE). Example full row from sol-ce-purpose-ledger-pass-R6172-6576-report.md: “R6176 | Q7316 | psid-questionnaire-occurrence:091095d3… | E3.CALENDAR_EXPOSURE | D | [M] | q88:p4[2538,2708)#10bc6b307d41”. Documents are the per-wave PSID instruments: f-docs are family-interview QxQ codebooks (e.g. f94 = fam1994_QxQs.pdf) and q-docs are questionnaires (e.g. q94 = q94.pdf, “1994 Questionnaire”, per the e4-era build’s source table).

Why the denominator is 20,815: 20,815 = 21,971 − 1,156. sol-ce-purpose-residual-index-v2-report.md states the domain law verbatim: “The domain law yields 20,815, not 20,809: E ⊂ D; |C − D − E| = 21,971 − 1,156 = 20,815”, where C is the canonical corpus (sol-ce-purpose-residual-index-report.md: “The canonical corpus contains 21,971 prompts. Subtracting the same IDs yields 20,815”) and the 1,156 is the already dual-covered calibration relation from sol-ce-purpose-grand-reconcile-report.md (“Unique dual-covered prompts: 1,156” = production ranks 1–1,130 plus 26 unique rubric-sample rows; the six calibration-only exclusions are inside those 26). So the artifacts state the relation to 21,971 directly: 21,971 canonical prompts = 1,156 dual-covered in the pre-census calibration phase + 20,815 residual ranks R1–R20815 that the census adjudicates. The index was pinned 2026-08-23 (board: “PURPOSE RESIDUAL INDEX PINNED: e8-ops/sol-ce-purpose-residual-index-v1.txt (20,815 rows; R-Q SHA 858a5aa9; file SHA b35519702e6f2e2a2541c25f62878d0125f86c31b383fbc681b5369d0c272c90)”). Distinct nearby numbers, per the same artifacts: 21,099 is the established-Q fail_closed_no_rule queue (an earlier Q namespace; “Subtracting 1,156 yields 19,943 rows, not approximately 20,815” — that derivation was explicitly rejected in favor of the canonical 21,971 ordinal), and 21,153 is the evidence-scope report’s “operative burden” of underdetermined prompts. Board percentage milestones are rank_end/20,815 (e.g. R11260/20,815 = 54.10%, matching “contiguous R1–R11260 = 54.10%”).

Document Ranks Count Status Dispositions Audit Adopted
early blocks R1-R4350 (aggregate: pilot rounds r1-r6 + pre-index production blocks + 452-rank gap block, re-keyed to the pinned index) R1–R4,350 4,350 adopted 3,898 re-keyed rulings = 3,487 D / 411 SU; plus 452 gap-block rulings (D/SU split not stated) coverage audit vs the pinned index: 0 duplicates, 452 gaps in R1-R4350 -> gap block dispatched; gap block reconciled 83.6% 2026-08-23
block R4351-R4650 R4,351–R4,650 300 adopted — reconciled 270/300 = 90.000% (below cal-3 reference 93.333%); adopted as table of record under the explicit policy change 2026-08-23
block R4651-R4950 R4,651–R4,950 300 adopted — reconciled 260/300 = 86.667% (24 application failures + 16 coverage gaps) -> triggered stop-and-diagnose 2026-08-23
block R4951-R5250 (f87 opening, families B-D) R4,951–R5,250 300 adopted — reconciled 264/300 = 88.000% RECALIBRATE - the last dual-pass block, folded as coverage data 2026-08-23
block R5251-R5550 (f87 close + q87 open; first ledger-first calibration block) R5,251–R5,550 300 adopted 300 = 294 D / 6 SU (corrected block final, 31 corrections) 82/99 = 82.83% NOT CALIBRATED (ledger-first calibration) -> corrected via sweep; adopted at the v1.8 fold 2026-08-24
block R5551-R5614 (q87 completion) R5,551–R5,614 64 adopted 64/64 (61 executable + 3 UNCOVERED proposals), 0 SU dense re-calibration audit CALIBRATED 28/28 = 100% (zero contradictions) 2026-08-24
f88 R5,615–R6,171 557 adopted 557 = 484 D / 73 SU (sum of corrected block finals: R5615-5914 = 256 D / 44 SU; R5915-6171 = 228 D / 29 SU) R5915-6171 audit 93/100 = 93.00% NOT CALIBRATED (family-concentrated); R5615-5914 audit NOT CALIBRATED -> both blocks sweep-corrected; adopted at the v1.10 fold 2026-08-24
q88 R6,172–R6,632 461 adopted 461 = 440 D / 21 SU (sum: R6172-6576 corrected final 405 = 391 D / 14 SU; tail R6577-6632 = 49 D / 7 SU) R6172-6576 audit 87/92 = 94.57% NOT CALIBRATED (family-concentrated) -> corrected (75 corrections); tail audit CALIBRATED 28/28 = 100%; adopted at the v1.12 fold 2026-08-25
f89 R6,633–R7,210 578 adopted opener R6633-6903 corrected final 271 = 233 D / 38 SU; block-2 R6904-7210 pass census 307 = 259 D / 48 SU, adopted with the single R7041 -> U_CONFLICT correction opener audit 118/150 = 78.67% NOT CALIBRATED -> corrected (118 corrections); block-2 CALIBRATED 99.32% (145/146) 2026-08-25
q89 R7,211–R7,558 348 adopted 348 = 313 D / 35 SU (corrected block final; 60 routing-only + 10 semantic+routing corrections) 113/123 = 91.87% NOT CALIBRATED -> corrected; adopted at the v1.18 fold 2026-08-25
f90 R7,559–R8,084 526 adopted opener R7559-7820 corrected 262 = 229 D / 33 SU; block-2 R7821-8084 = 225 D / 39 SU (sum 454 D / 72 SU) opener audit 116/121 = 95.87% NOT CALIBRATED (family-concentrated) -> corrected; block-2 CALIBRATED 99.08% 2026-08-26
q90 R8,085–R8,552 468 adopted B+C R8085-8295 corrected census 211 = 173 D / 38 SU; D-M R8296-8552 corrected 257 = 182 D / 75 SU (sum 355 D / 113 SU) B+C dual audits split -> geometry adjudication CALIBRATED 85/86 = 98.84%; D-M corrected under the geometry law 2026-08-26
f91 R8,553–R8,974 422 adopted 422 = 368 D / 54 SU (corrected final; 28 sealed semantic corrections) 166/194 = 85.57% NOT CALIBRATED -> corrected; adopted at the v1.26 fold 2026-08-28
q91 R8,975–R9,571 597 adopted opener R8975-9245 corrected 271 = 261 D / 10 SU; block-3 R9246-9571 corrected 326 = 311 D / 15 SU (sum 572 D / 25 SU) opener audit 85/90 = 94.44% NOT CALIBRATED (concentrated defects); block-3 audit 96.55% NOT CALIBRATED (transition-date family) -> both corrected 2026-08-28
f92 R9,572–R9,795 224 adopted 224 = 193 D / 31 SU (corrected final; sweep found 12 contradictions, 4 beyond the audit) 100/108 = 92.59% NOT CALIBRATED -> corrected; adopted at the v1.32 fold 2026-08-28
q92 R9,796–R10,217 422 adopted 422 = 405 D / 17 SU (corrected final; UNCOVERED=0) 140/145 = 96.55% numeric pass but all six SEE-router checkpoint rows misruled -> NOT CALIBRATED -> corrected; adopted at the v1.33 fold 2026-08-28
q93 R10,218–R10,749 532 adopted opener R10218-10457 corrected 240 = 222 D / 18 SU; block-7 R10458-10749 corrected 292 = 269 D / 23 SU (sum 491 D / 41 SU) opener audit 79/89 = 88.76% NOT CALIBRATED; block-7 audit 95/99 = 95.96% NOT CALIBRATED (overlap/reclassification gateway family) -> both corrected 2026-08-29
f94 R10,750–R11,260 511 adopted block-1 R10750-11039 corrected 290 = 271 D / 19 SU; block-2 R11040-11260 corrected 221 = 198 D / 23 SU (sum 469 D / 42 SU) block-1 audit 132/139 = 94.96% NOT CALIBRATED (family-concentrated); block-2 audit 96/112 = 85.71% sample / 203/221 = 91.86% guard sweep NOT CALIBRATED -> both corrected 2026-08-30
q94 (B+C opener block) R11,261–R11,576 316 adopted corrected final 316 = 303 D / 13 SU (UNCOVERED=0; supersedes the provisional pass census 316 = 301 D / 15 SU with 221 ledger-matched / 95 UNCOVERED) 241/288 = 83.68% sample / 268/316 = 84.81% full NOT CALIBRATED - central simultaneity frame REVERSED (q94 has no simultaneity sentence) -> frame-reversal correction sweep applied; corrected final adopted at the v1.44 fold, q94 B+C CLOSED, contiguous R1-R11576 = 55.61% 2026-08-30
q94 D+E (block 4) R11,577–R11,894 318 adopted 304 D / 14 SU dense audit CALIBRATED 272/272 sample and 318/318 full = 100.00% — the campaign’s first calibrated block; folded v1.45 with no sweep 2026-08-30
q94 tail + f95 complete + q95 B opener (block 5) R11,895–R12,163 269 adopted 236 D / 33 SU (pass census) 96.90% sample / 97.40% full NOT CALIBRATED (all 7 contradictions in f95) -> f95-focused sweep 269/269; folded v1.50 2026-08-30
q95 C+D (block 6) R12,164–R12,398 235 adopted 221 D / 14 SU 91.26% sampled NOT CALIBRATED (position family + [C,H] composites) -> sweep with 11 corrections; folded v1.53 2026-08-30
q95 tail + f96 complete (block 7) R12,399–R12,690 292 adopted 253 D / 39 SU (corrected) 73.72% sample / 80.82% full NOT CALIBRATED — worst E4 block (41/56 defects in f96 B/S) -> sweep-r2 292/292 with 56 corrections; folded v1.55 2026-08-30
q96 B+C opener (block 8) R12,691–R12,922 232 adopted 219 D / 13 SU (corrected) 100.00% semantic (103/103 sample, 232/232 full) but 90.29% sample / 95.69% full route-completeness NOT CALIBRATED -> route-cure sweep (ten route repairs, no result changes); folded v1.57 2026-08-30
q96 D–L (block 9; E4 tranche close) R12,923–R13,210 288 adopted 268 D / 20 SU (corrected) NOT CALIBRATED: 6 semantic contradictions in 2 families + 4 route recoveries wrong; era-generic 29/29 semantic PASS but receipt-completeness FAIL; pass vector never serialized -> full re-serialization sweep 288/288; folded v1.59; E4 tranche closed 2026-08-31
f97 + q97 B opener (block 1) R13,211–R13,490 280 adopted 260 D / 20 SU (corrected) 62.90% NOT CALIBRATED — the campaign’s worst (f97-concentrated) -> sweep with 71 corrections; folded v1.62 2026-08-31
q97 C+D (block 2) R13,491–R13,723 233 adopted 220 D / 13 SU CALIBRATED 72/72 sample = 100.00%; 232/233 full; folded v1.63 directly from the pass 2026-08-31
q97 tail + f99 first contact (block 3) R13,724–R14,033 310 adopted 257 D / 53 SU 116/127 = 91.34% NOT CALIBRATED -> sweep applying the 23-row manifest, 310/310; folded v1.65 2026-09-01
q1999 B+C opener (block 4) R14,034–R14,266 233 adopted 220 D / 13 SU CALIBRATED 68/68 = 100.00% on all three measures — a first-contact document; folded v1.66 2026-09-01
q1999 D+E (block 5) R14,267–R14,499 233 adopted 220 D / 13 SU CALIBRATED 69/69 = 100.00%; folded v1.67 2026-09-01
q1999 G–R (block 6) R14,500–R14,779 280 adopted 230 D / 50 SU 97.14% sample / 98.93% full NOT CALIBRATED on family concentration only; closed 3-row manifest adopted directly; folded v1.68 2026-09-01
f2001 + q2001 B (block 7) R14,780–R15,059 280 adopted 226 D / 54 SU (corrected) 86.40% semantic / 83.20% route NOT CALIBRATED (f2001-concentrated) -> sweep: 159-row f2001 replay, 24 corrections; folded v1.70 2026-09-01
q2001 C+D (block 8) R15,060–R15,291 232 adopted 219 D / 13 SU CALIBRATED 72/72 = 100.00%; 0 contradictions in 232 rows; folded v1.71 2026-09-01
q2001 E/G/P/K/L/R (block 9; late-E4 tranche close) R15,292–R15,624 333 adopted 280 D / 53 SU (corrected) 92.86% sampled NOT CALIBRATED, but the full-domain replay closed a 17-row manifest -> adopted with corrections under the closed-manifest precedent; folded v1.72 2026-09-01
fam2003 + q2003 BC/DE/G (E5 block 1) R15,625–R15,883 259 adopted 224 D / 35 SU (corrected) 90.00% sample / 92.66% full NOT CALIBRATED (q2003 G concentrated) -> sweep CURED, 259-row replay with 22 E5-rule applications; folded v1.75 2026-09-01
q2003 P/KL/R + fam2005 + q2005 BC/DE (E5 block 2) R15,884–R16,138 255 adopted 194 D / 61 SU (corrected) 93.73% full strict but the sample fails the route/strict limbs, NOT CALIBRATED -> sweep 255/255, 16 substantive corrections (2 q2003 + 14 outside q2003); folded v1.77 2026-09-02
q2005 G/P/KL/R + fam2007 BCDE/F/G (E5 block 3) R16,139–R16,400 262 adopted 203 D / 59 SU CALIBRATED 146/146 = 100.00% on both limbs; folded v1.78 2026-09-02
fam2007 P/KL/R/IO + q2007 BC/DE/G (E5 block 4) R16,401–R16,729 329 adopted 247 D / 82 SU 93.98% strict sample NOT CALIBRATED (family-concentrated); closed 10-row manifest adopted; folded v1.79 2026-09-02
q2007 P/KL/R + fam2009 + q2009 BC/DE (E5 block 5) R16,730–R17,022 293 adopted 240 D / 53 SU NOT CALIBRATED on the receipt-strict limb only (165/165 semantic, 292/293 route); one route correction; folded v1.80 2026-09-02
q2009 G/R/P/KL (E5 block 6) R17,023–R17,308 286 adopted 233 D / 53 SU 97.32% sample / 98.60% full NOT CALIBRATED on family concentration; 4-row manifest adopted; folded v1.81 2026-09-02
fam2011 + q2011 BC/DE (E5 block 7) R17,309–R17,585 277 adopted 230 D / 47 SU (corrected) 77.97% strict sample NOT CALIBRATED (q2011 whole-roster EHC routing family) -> regeneration sweep-r2, 277/277; folded v1.83 2026-09-03
q2011 F/G/R/P/KL (E5 block 8; the tranche’s last block) R17,586–R17,888 303 in_cycle — — —
post-E5-tranche remainder (fam2013 onward; not yet tranched) R17,889–R20,815 2,927 pending — — —

A3 classification, block by block

What one unit is: One queue row is one compiled-variable “family” from the A3 document-local review queue: a single PSID codebook value-meaning (e.g. rank 1’s “Major assignment; probable error of greater than $300 or 10 percent of assignment value (whichever is greater)”, per sol-ce-a3-reconcile-1-300-report.md’s scope receipts, which identify each rank by stage/global/lexeme/meaning) grouping all uncovered occurrences of that meaning within one document. Per sol-ce-a3-queue-characterization.md the queue is “41,103 families / 86,840 uncovered occurrences (mean 2.11, max 38; 31,588 single-occurrence rows). All rows source_document_count = 1 (document-LOCAL…)”. Each rank is adjudicated to a missingness disposition — per sol-ce-a3-reconcile-1-300-report.md: “T = true/missing; U = underdetermined; F = false/nonmissing” — with a fourth outcome X/UNCLASSIFIED (fail-closed quarantine where O>0 or R=0) adopted from block 24001 onward under the v1.14 X-vocabulary ruling (“block finals are now four-set T/U/F/UNCLASSIFIED partitions”).

Block Final census Audit Status
1–800 T 729 / U 24 / F 47 — final
801–1,600 T 28 / U 759 / F 13 — final
1,601–2,400 T 81 / U 686 / F 33 — final
2,401–3,200 T 545 / U 69 / F 186 — final
3,201–4,000 T 568 / U 24 / F 208 — final
4,001–4,800 T 563 / U 26 / F 211 — final
4,801–5,600 T 545 / U 61 / F 194 — final
5,601–6,400 T 665 / U 92 / F 43 — final
6,401–7,200 — — unresolved
7,201–8,000 T 673 / U 86 / F 41 — final
8,001–8,800 T 578 / U 62 / F 160 — final
8,801–9,600 T 102 / U 22 / F 676 — final
9,601–10,400 T 701 / U 96 / F 3 — final
10,401–11,200 T 408 / U 391 / F 1 — final
11,201–12,000 T 503 / U 98 / F 199 CLEAN 154/154 (contradictions 0) final
12,001–12,800 T 482 / U 72 / F 246 CLEAN 152/152 (library-defect set ∅) final
12,801–13,600 T 784 / U 10 / F 6 CLEAN 160/160 (contradictions ∅) final
13,601–14,400 T 665 / U 131 / F 4 CLEAN 147/147 covered predictions (100%) final
14,401–15,200 T 323 / U 54 / F 423 CLEAN 150/150 (100%) final
15,201–16,000 T 625 / U 126 / F 49 CLEAN 148/148 (100%) (v2 audit) final
16,001–16,800 T 687 / U 38 / F 75 CLEAN 154/154 (100%) final
16,801–17,600 T 800 / U 0 / F 0 CLEAN 160/160 (100%) final
17,601–18,400 T 800 / U 0 / F 0 CLEAN 160/160 (100%) final
18,401–19,200 T 535 / U 222 / F 43 LIBRARY DEFECT — 156/158 = 98.73% (2 contradictions) final
19,201–20,000 T 743 / U 41 / F 16 LIBRARY DEFECT — 160/161 = 99.38% (1 contradiction) final
20,001–20,800 T 699 / U 100 / F 1 CLEAN 148/148 (no library-class defect) final
20,801–21,600 T 706 / U 91 / F 3 NOT CLEAN — 3 library-class defects; 141/144 agree final
21,601–22,400 T 666 / U 134 / F 0 NOT CLEAN — 7 library-class defects; 141/148 agree (frontier paused: 4.7% > bound) final
22,401–23,200 T 549 / U 248 / F 3 CALIBRATED — 40% audit, 264/264 agree, 0.00% contradictions final
23,201–24,000 T 686 / U 114 / F 0 v1 NOT CALIBRATED 65.69%; v2 NOT CLEAN 154/160 agree final
24,001–24,800 T 738 / U 59 / F 0 / X 3 NOT CLEAN — 154 agreements / 5 claimed defects (sweep: 4 audit errors, 1 real) final
24,801–25,600 T 217 / U 530 / F 2 / X 51 NOT CLEAN 151/160 = 94.38% (corrected 150/160 after 2 claims overturned) final
25,601–26,400 T 416 / U 126 / F 127 / X 131 NOT CLEAN 110/163 = 67.48% (v2; corrected score 148/163 = 90.80%, OFUM claim SUSTAINED) final
26,401–27,200 T 752 / U 47 / F 1 / X 0 CLEAN 161/161 = 100.00% (first perfect audit of the arm) final
27,201–28,000 T 338 / U 15 / F 0 / X 447 NOT CLEAN 160/165 = 96.97% (27503 claim overturned by sweep) final
28,001–28,800 T 205 / U 294 / F 38 / X 263 NOT CLEAN 110/162 = 67.90% final
28,801–29,600 T 314 / U 265 / F 45 / X 176 NOT CLEAN 145/162 = 89.51% final
29,601–30,400 T 0 / U 691 / F 0 / X 109 NOT CLEAN 139/160 = 86.88% final
30,401–31,200 T 0 / U 675 / F 0 / X 125 NOT CLEAN 136/160 = 85.00% final
31,201–32,000 T 437 / U 160 / F 3 / X 200 NOT CLEAN 136/166 = 81.93% final
32,001–32,800 T 290 / U 60 / F 0 / X 450 CONTRADICT 77/161 = 47.83% (audit’s 69-row over-quarantine claim later OVERTURNED by sweep) final
32,801–33,600 T 215 / U 47 / F 0 / X 538 CONTRADICT 147/166 = 88.55% class/decision (sweep: SUSTAIN, audit vindicated 166/166) final
33,601–34,400 T 484 / U 70 / F 1 / X 245 CONTRADICT 130/162 = 80.25% agreement (32/162 contradictions; sweep SUSTAIN 32/32) final
34,401–35,200 T 59 / U 135 / F 183 / X 423 NOT CLEAN 145/180 = 80.56% final
35,201–36,000 T 82 / U 14 / F 677 / X 27 NOT CLEAN 181/182 = 99.45% -> patch-sweep OVERTURNED the audit at 35251: CLEAN 182/182 (first fully clean A3 block); library v1.22 final
36,001–36,800 T 15 / U 40 / F 636 / X 109 CLEAN 292/292 = 100.00% at audit (no patch-sweep needed); library v1.23 final
36,801–37,600 T 12 / U 14 / F 615 / X 159 NOT CLEAN 204/225 = 90.67% (21 contradictions, minted-class F on incomplete construction frames) -> patch-sweep SUSTAINED 18/21 + overturned 3, corrected 117 over-fires; library v1.24 final
37,601–38,400 T 2 / U 8 / F 376 / X 414 NOT CLEAN 99.46% (single dispute 37821) -> patch SUSTAINED the audit + one homolog 38337; library v1.25 final
38,401–39,200 T 5 / U 34 / F 625 / X 136 NOT CLEAN 90.62% / 92.88% (57 contradictions in five families, zero predicate defects) -> patch-sweep re-ruled all 57; library v1.26 final
39,201–40,000 T 15 / U 9 / F 465 / X 311 NOT CLEAN 78.97% decision / 65.64% full (253-row over-quarantine) -> patch SUSTAIN 67/67 + 3 amendments, 154 decision corrections; library v1.27 (frame_buildability_guard) final
40,001–41,103 T 457 / U 59 / F 373 / X 214 NOT CLEAN 282/297 = 94.95% (15 contradictions + the 40819 dispute) -> patch SUSTAIN 15/15 + 48 sweep additions; TERMINUS CONFIRMED; library v1.28 — queue complete final

Q5 annotation, sealed documents

What one unit is: Sealing one document is the Q5 arm’s per-document closure. Two independent lanes (A and B) each annotate every extracted questionnaire occurrence in one PSID document with semantic-binding arrays, source-only; per the cal2 law ruling on the board, pre-freeze Q5 scope is ‘binding arrays only (NE universally), one-document dual blocks’. A reconcile lane then aligns the two lane tables row-by-row, resolves every disagreement against the PSID source PDF (dispositions tallied AB/A/B/SRC), runs an agreed-row seam audit, and emits a canonical table of record — compact sorted-key JSON, one row per occurrence, with a pinned SHA-256 (e.g. sol-ce-q5-doc-1991f-reconcile-report.md: ‘Result: reconciliation COMPLETE; canonical annotation SEALED’). The ladder is defined in sol-ce-q5-cal2-reconcile-report.md: ‘Dual independent annotation; reconcile all disagreements; 10% agreed-row seam audit’, with promotion requiring ‘Two consecutive clean blocks’. SEALED is therefore distinct from the clean-block verdict: every one of the 33 sealed documents so far also ruled RECALIBRATE (most FAIL/RECALIBRATE — raw lane agreement below the clean bar), so the ladder has stayed at one document per dual-annotation block with clean streak 0 throughout.

Document Rows sealed Verdict Sealed
1969 family questionnaire (q69) 268 SEALED / RECALIBRATE 2026-08-21
1970 family questionnaire (q70) 263 SEALED / RECALIBRATE 2026-08-22
1971 family questionnaire (q71) 252 SEALED / RECALIBRATE 2026-08-23
1972 family questionnaire (q72) 181 RECALIBRATE 2026-08-23
1973 family questionnaire (q73) 277 RECALIBRATE 2026-08-23
1974 family questionnaire (q74) 243 COMPLETE / RECALIBRATE 2026-08-23
1975 family questionnaire (q75) 346 COMPLETE / RECALIBRATE 2026-08-23
1976 family questionnaire (q76) 453 COMPLETE / RECALIBRATE 2026-08-23
1977 family questionnaire (q77) 357 RECALIBRATE 2026-08-23
1978 family questionnaire (q78) 362 COMPLETE / RECALIBRATE 2026-08-23
1979 family questionnaire (q79.pdf) 281 COMPLETE / RECALIBRATE 2026-08-23
1980 family questionnaire (q80) 444 COMPLETE / Q5 FAIL / RECALIBRATE 2026-08-23
1981 family questionnaire (q81) 468 COMPLETE / Q5 FAIL / RECALIBRATE 2026-08-23
1982 family questionnaire (q82) 466 COMPLETE / Q5 FAIL / RECALIBRATE 2026-08-23
1983 family questionnaire QxQ companion (fam1983_QxQs.pdf) 1,025 COMPLETE / Q5 FAIL / RECALIBRATE 2026-08-24
1983 family questionnaire (q83.pdf) 501 COMPLETE / Q5 FAIL / RECALIBRATE 2026-08-24
1984 family questionnaire (q84) 88 COMPLETE / Q5 FAIL / RECALIBRATE 2026-08-24
1984 family questionnaire QxQ companion (fam1984_QxQs.pdf) 3,125 COMPLETE / Q5 FAIL / RECALIBRATE 2026-08-24
1985 family questionnaire (q85) 306 COMPLETE / Q5 FAIL / RECALIBRATE 2026-08-25
1985 family questionnaire QxQ companion (fam1985_QxQs) 5,634 COMPLETE / Q5 FAIL / RECALIBRATE 2026-08-25
1986 family questionnaire QxQ companion (fam1986_QxQs) 1,815 COMPLETE / SEALED / FAIL — RECALIBRATE 2026-08-25
1986 family questionnaire (q86) 390 COMPLETE / RECALIBRATE 2026-08-25
1987 family questionnaire QxQ companion (fam1987_QxQs) 1,741 COMPLETE / SEALED / Q5 FAIL / RECALIBRATE 2026-08-25
1987 family questionnaire (q87) 435 COMPLETE / RECALIBRATE 2026-08-25
1988 family questionnaire QxQ companion (fam1988_QxQs) 1,830 COMPLETE / SEALED / Q5 FAIL / RECALIBRATE 2026-08-25
1988 family questionnaire (q88) 1,847 COMPLETE / SEALED / Q5 FAIL / RECALIBRATE 2026-08-25
1989 family questionnaire QxQ companion (fam1989_QxQs) 1,875 COMPLETE / SEALED / Q5 FAIL / RECALIBRATE 2026-08-25
1989 family questionnaire (q89) 951 FAIL / RECALIBRATE (table complete and reproduced) 2026-08-26
1990 family questionnaire QxQ companion (fam1990_QxQs) 1,723 COMPLETE / SEALED / FAIL / RECALIBRATE 2026-08-26
1990 family questionnaire (q90.pdf) 1,256 COMPLETE (seal) / FAIL / RECALIBRATE 2026-08-27
1991 family questionnaire QxQ companion (fam1991_QxQs.pdf) 1,476 COMPLETE / SEALED / FAIL / RECALIBRATE 2026-08-27
1991 family questionnaire (q91.pdf) 2,474 FAIL / RECALIBRATE (annotation complete and sealed) 2026-08-29
1992 family questionnaire QxQ companion (fam1992_QxQs.pdf) 1,158 RECALIBRATE (annotation complete and sealed) 2026-08-30
1992 family questionnaire (q92.pdf) 2,302 RECALIBRATE (table of record issued; binding-law ruling in force) 2026-08-30
1993 family questionnaire (q93.pdf) 7,315 RECALIBRATE (table of record structurally all-pass) 2026-08-31
1994 family questionnaire QxQ companion (fam1994_QxQs.pdf) 2,500 RECALIBRATE (both transports authenticated without repair) 2026-08-31
1994 family questionnaire (q94.pdf) 2,813 RECALIBRATE (2,509 bound / 304 empty; zero unresolved) 2026-09-01
1995 family questionnaire QxQ companion (fam1995_QxQs.pdf) 884 RECALIBRATE 2026-09-01
1995 family questionnaire (q95.pdf) 7,145 RECALIBRATE (largest single-document seal at the time) 2026-09-01
1996 family questionnaire QxQ companion (fam1996_QxQs.pdf) 363 RECALIBRATE (clean-block FAIL; complete reconciled table) 2026-09-01
1996 family questionnaire (q96.pdf) 7,147 RECALIBRATE (raw agreement 44.90%; all divergent families source-resolved) 2026-09-02
1997 family questionnaire QxQ companion (fam1997_QxQs.pdf) 450 RECALIBRATE (dual-serialized; seal ratified against the campaign-chain reconcile) 2026-09-02
1997 family questionnaire (q97.pdf) 7,628 RECALIBRATE (dual-serialized; lane B recovered by dual-serialization cross-recovery) 2026-09-02
1999 family questionnaire QxQ companion (fam1999_QxQs.pdf) 282 RECALIBRATE (103/282 arrays diverged; all source-resolved) 2026-09-02
1999 family questionnaire (q1999.pdf) 8,498 RECALIBRATE (largest table of record: 8,498 rows) 2026-09-02

Development scorecard

Eight pre-registered gates; all seven locked gates have a registered first pass; 48 one-shot candidate runs on the public record.

Every candidate model is registered before its single scored run, and every run — pass or fail — is committed. The failures are part of the record.

Gate What it tests Candidates First pass
Earnings-history credibility The backcast earnings process scores against held-out PSID panel moments and geometry blocks, judged against the same-panel noise floor. 13 Candidate 13 (rank_knn_v5, 2026-07-07): 5/5 seeds geometry, 4/5 battery, C2ST 0.523 ≤ 0.53 — after 12 committed failing runs.
Family transitions (marital and fertility) Marriage, divorce, remarriage, widowhood, occupancy, cohort nuptiality, and fertility transitions scored against the PSID marital and childbirth history files. 16 Candidate 16 (hazard_v16, 2026-07-09): 4/5 seeds across all 46 gated cells — after 15 committed failing runs.
Household composition Who lives with whom: coresidence stocks and wave-to-wave transitions from the PSID relationship matrix — spouse/partner, parent, child, grandchild, household size, multigenerational entry and exit. 9 Candidate 9 (hazard_v9, 2026-07-11): 4/5 seeds — after 8 committed failing runs.
Marriage × earnings joint Who marries whom by earnings — assortative mating, earnings-conditional marriage hazards, and couple shared-earnings shape, on which spousal and survivor benefit levels depend. 2 Candidate 2 (hazard_v2, 2026-07-12): 4/5 seeds.
Disability Work-limitation incidence and recovery hazards, disabled-occupancy prevalence, and near-retirement disability exit, anchored against SSA Disability Annual Statistical Report tables. 1 Candidate 1 (2026-07-12): 5/5 seeds, all 12 gated cells — passed on the first attempt.
Representative-frame transport The PSID-estimated generators transported onto the certified CPS representative frame: 44 gated cross-sectional cells plus SSA administrative margins. 4 Candidate 4 (2026-07-13): 43/43 cells in-band on 5/5 seeds — after 3 failing candidates.
Temporal-holdout projection drift The projection engine fits on data through 2014 only, then projects and is scored on the held-out 2015–2022 window — a genuine out-of-time test. 3 Candidate 3 (2026-07-24): 4/5 seeds across the 11 gated cells.
Forward projection Near-term components resolve against future administrative publications on named resolution rules — scored when the numbers come out. — — (thresholds not yet locked)

Comparisons against the incumbent models

Direct number-for-number comparisons against the incumbent models are registered as a benchmark inventory that fills in as modules land — shown here before launch, deliberately.

  • MINT / CBO / SSA benchmark inventory (tranche 2) — 2 of 60 rows computable. 60 registered comparison rows against published MINT (19), CBO (30), and SSA Statistical Supplement (11) figures; 58 rows await the modules that compute them. Each row is pinned to the captured source file by hash. (source)
  • Cross-sectional incumbent replacement (Enhanced CPS) — candidate beats incumbent. Archived scorecard: a Microcosm-US candidate against the certified Enhanced CPS 2024 production incumbent on 3,704 calibration targets — candidate loss 0.228 vs incumbent 1.405 (holdout 0.038 vs 0.317). Publication pending in microcosm-benchmarks. (source)
  • DYNASIM output comparisons — not yet. No quantitative DYNASIM-output rows exist yet; today’s DYNASIM comparison is the capability table below. Quantitative rows begin at the projection and benefit stages.

Capability scorecard vs DYNASIM

Component-by-component against DYNASIM, the main non-governmental dynamic benchmark (from the public record; full matrix in the design book).

Component DYNASIM This project
Historical earnings Lifetime histories from survey plus linked administrative inputs PSID 1968–2022 panel; gate 1 passed (13th candidate)
Family structure Marriage, divorce, and family in the annual simulation Gates 2, 2b, 2c passed across three tranches
Disability Documented health and work-limitation modules Gate m4 passed, anchored to SSA administrative tables
Base population SIPP-based starting sample Certified CPS synthetic frame; transport gate w1 passed
Forward projection Annual updating and alignment Temporal-holdout gate m6 passed; forward gate pre-lock
Social Security rule engine Rule-based, code not public Open PolicyEngine-US engine plus AIME/PIA oracle (built, not gated)
Claiming behavior Retirement-and-timing model Reduced-form claim-age distribution (built, reported, not gated)
Auxiliary benefits Spouse and survivor analysis in natural domain Spousal, survivor, widow incl. dual-entitlement logic (built, not gated)
Wealth, assets, and LTSS Major documented strength Design-only — a later extension track

Timeline forecast

From the pre-registered timeline ledger, entry 22 (registered 2026-09-03). Dates are point-in-time forecasts, not commitments; the ledger records every revision with its reasons.

Milestone p50 p80
Milestone A — revision-22 ratification (A20 framework operative) 2026-09-10 2026-09-17
Milestone B — corrected-earnings successor authority and publication (the resolution event) 2026-10-21 2026-12-04
  • Milestone A: Not gated by the Q5 program; requires the purpose census (3,230 ranks remaining at registration), the A4 evidence freeze and the C20 ceremony chain.
  • Milestone B: Gated by the Q5 program (45/257 documents, 20.2% of required atoms at registration; two document classes unstarted) and completion of the purpose census.

Recent milestones

  • 2026-09-03 — E5 blocks 6–7 close (ledger v1.83; purpose reaches 84.48%) and the tranche’s last block, block 8 to R17888, is in flight. Q5 seals 1999f and 1999q — the latter the campaign’s largest table of record at 8,498 rows — reaching 45/257. An output-order mandate (full serialization first, no placeholders) is adopted as standing process law for large deliverables after a truncated sweep had to be re-run.
  • 2026-09-02 — E5 blocks 3–5 close (block 3 CALIBRATED at 100% — the third perfect purpose block); purpose reaches 81.78%. Q5 seals 1997q after a dual-serialization cross-recovery repaired a damaged lane print without a re-run (43/257).
  • 2026-09-02 — Purpose census enters the E5 era (2003–2011 questionnaires; tranche R15625–R17888 pinned) and reaches 77.53% overnight; Q5 seals 1996q and 1997f (42/257).
  • 2026-09-01 — The A3 classification arm COMPLETES: all 41,103 queue rows final-adopted (49,722 adjudicated ranks across the A1/A2/A3 programs, zero predicate defects campaign-wide). Purpose census reaches 71.00% with its last in-scope document (q2001) in the verification cycle; Q5 reaches 38/257.
  • 2026-08-30 — Evening sprint: purpose reaches 60.97% (blocks 5–7 closed; q94–q95 complete; the q96 opener — E4’s final document — enters audit); A3 reaches 93.4% with its first two audit-clean blocks ever; Q5 seals 1992q (34/257) under a new occurrence-local binding-law ruling.
  • 2026-08-30 — Purpose census reaches 55.61% (q94 B+C closed under ledger v1.44 after the audit reversed the opener’s imported simultaneity frame — the cross-document transfer prohibition holding under pressure); A3 frontier reaches 35,200/41,103 (85.6%).
  • 2026-08-30 — E3 questionnaire era completed and the E4 era opened overnight; f94 complete; purpose census reaches 54.10% contiguous. A3 reaches the 1968-era queue boundary (83.7%). Q5 seals documents 048–049 (33/257).
  • 2026-08-29 — Purpose census crosses 50% of the residual domain (contiguous R1–R10457 = 50.24%); q93 B+C complete.
  • 2026-08-28 — f91 complete; purpose census at 43.11% contiguous; governing ledger reaches v1.26.
  • 2026-08-26 — f89-era tranche closed: contiguous R1–R8552 = 41.09%; every rank of the 1,920-rank tranche went through pass, dense audit, adjudication where audits split, and correction sweep.
  • 2026-08-20 — Timeline-forecast entry 21 registered: scope bifurcation into milestones A and B.

How these numbers are produced

Every block of work moves through the same pipeline before it counts here: a full pass over the block, an independent dense audit, an adjudication step where audits disagree, and a correction sweep whose output is folded into the governing ledger. Q5 documents are annotated by two independent lanes and sealed only by a reconciliation of both. Nothing on this page is self-reported by the lane that produced it.