Economic assumptions

Consumer price index¶

We apply CPI to these variables:

• All reported benefits– attendance_allowance_reported, carers_allowance_reported, child_benefit_reported, child_tax_credit_reported, dla_m_reported, dla_sc_reported, esa_contrib_reported, esa_income_reported, housing_benefit_reported, iidb_reported, incapacity_benefit_reported, income_support_reported, jsa_contrib_reported, jsa_income_reported, maternity_allowance_reported, pension_credit_reported, pip_dl_reported, pip_m_reported, sda_reported, state_pension_reported, universal_credit_reported, winter_fuel_allowance_reported, working_tax_credit_reported

• All consumption categories– alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption, clothing_and_footwear_consumption, communication_consumption, domestic_energy_consumption, education_consumption, food_and_non_alcoholic_beverages_consumption, health_consumption, household_furnishings_consumption, housing_water_and_electricity_consumption, miscellaneous_consumption, recreation_consumption, restaurants_and_hotels_consumption, transport_consumption

• Other variables– afcs_reported, bsp_reported, childcare_expenses, diesel_spending, free_school_fruit_veg, free_school_meals, free_school_milk, maintenance_expenses, petrol_spending, statutory_maternity_pay, statutory_paternity_pay, statutory_sick_pay, state_pension

Average earnings¶

We use average earnings for these variables: employee_pension_contributions, employer_pension_contributions, employment_income, employment_income_before_lsr, personal_pension_contributions, student_loan_repayments

Lagged average earnings¶

We lag earnings growth by one year and use that to uprate housing service charges (including ground rent).

Per capita GDP¶

We derive these rates from OBR GDP growth and ONS population projections.

We use per capita GDP for these variables: capital_gains, capital_gains_before_response, corporate_wealth, dividend_income, gross_financial_wealth, lump_sum_income, main_residence_value, maintenance_income, miscellaneous_income, mortgage_capital_repayment, net_financial_wealth, non_residential_property_value, other_investment_income, other_residential_property_value, owned_land, pension_income, private_transfer_income, property_income, savings, savings_interest_income, sublet_income

Council tax¶

We use the OBR’s Council Tax receipts and projections.

We apply this to: council_tax

Mortgage interest¶

We use the OBR’s mortgage interest rate index growth rates.

We apply this to: mortgage_interest_repayment

Private pension index¶

We use RPI year-on-year change from the previous year, capped at 5%.

We apply this to: private_pension_income

Rent¶

We use the OBR’s rental growth projections.

We apply this to: rent

Per capita mixed income¶

We derive these rates from OBR mixed income growth and ONS population projections.

We apply this to: self_employment_income

Population¶

We use ONS population projections.

We apply this to: household_weight