Consumer price index¶
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth rate | 10.0% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
We apply CPI to these variables:
- All reported benefits–
attendance_allowance_reported,carers_allowance_reported,child_benefit_reported,child_tax_credit_reported,dla_m_reported,dla_sc_reported,esa_contrib_reported,esa_income_reported,housing_benefit_reported,iidb_reported,incapacity_benefit_reported,income_support_reported,jsa_contrib_reported,jsa_income_reported,maternity_allowance_reported,pension_credit_reported,pip_dl_reported,pip_m_reported,sda_reported,state_pension_reported,universal_credit_reported,winter_fuel_allowance_reported,working_tax_credit_reported - All consumption categories–
alcohol_and_tobacco_consumption,clothing_and_footwear_consumption,communication_consumption,domestic_energy_consumption,education_consumption,food_and_non_alcoholic_beverages_consumption,health_consumption,household_furnishings_consumption,housing_water_and_electricity_consumption,miscellaneous_consumption,recreation_consumption,restaurants_and_hotels_consumption,transport_consumption - Other variables–
afcs_reported,bsp_reported,childcare_expenses,diesel_spending,free_school_fruit_veg,free_school_meals,free_school_milk,maintenance_expenses,petrol_spending,statutory_maternity_pay,statutory_paternity_pay,statutory_sick_pay,state_pension
Average earnings¶
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth rate | 6.4% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% |
We use average earnings for these variables: employee_pension_contributions, employer_pension_contributions, employment_income, employment_income_before_lsr, personal_pension_contributions, student_loan_repayments
Lagged average earnings¶
We lag earnings growth by one year and use that to uprate housing service charges (including ground rent).
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth rate | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% |
Per capita GDP¶
We derive these rates from OBR GDP growth and ONS population projections.
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth rate | 9.2% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
We use per capita GDP for these variables: capital_gains, capital_gains_before_response, corporate_wealth, dividend_income, gross_financial_wealth, lump_sum_income, main_residence_value, maintenance_income, miscellaneous_income, mortgage_capital_repayment, net_financial_wealth, non_residential_property_value, other_investment_income, other_residential_property_value, owned_land, pension_income, private_transfer_income, property_income, savings, savings_interest_income, sublet_income
Council tax¶
We use the OBR’s Council Tax receipts and projections.
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth rate | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% |
We apply this to: council_tax
Mortgage interest¶
We use the OBR’s mortgage interest rate index growth rates.
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth rate | 26.2% | 48.5% | 22.1% | 13.6% | 12.6% | 8.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% |
We apply this to: mortgage_interest_repayment
Private pension index¶
We use RPI year-on-year change from the previous year, capped at 5%.
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth rate | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% |
We apply this to: private_pension_income
Rent¶
We use the OBR’s rental growth projections.
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth rate | 4.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.4% |
We apply this to: rent
Per capita mixed income¶
We derive these rates from OBR mixed income growth and ONS population projections.
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth rate | 6.3% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% |
We apply this to: self_employment_income
Population¶
We use ONS population projections.
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth rate | 0.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
We apply this to: household_weight